--- product_id: 74140700 title: "Incerto (Deluxe Edition): Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, The Bed of Procrustes, Antifragile, Skin in the Game" price: "1248.38 DT" currency: TND in_stock: true reviews_count: 13 url: https://www.desertcart.tn/products/74140700-incerto-deluxe-edition-fooled-by-randomness-the-black-swan-bed store_origin: TN region: Tunisia --- # Incerto (Deluxe Edition): Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, The Bed of Procrustes, Antifragile, Skin in the Game **Price:** 1248.38 DT **Availability:** ✅ In Stock ## Quick Answers - **What is this?** Incerto (Deluxe Edition): Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, The Bed of Procrustes, Antifragile, Skin in the Game - **How much does it cost?** 1248.38 DT with free shipping - **Is it available?** Yes, in stock and ready to ship - **Where can I buy it?** [www.desertcart.tn](https://www.desertcart.tn/products/74140700-incerto-deluxe-edition-fooled-by-randomness-the-black-swan-bed) ## Best For - Customers looking for quality international products ## Why This Product - Free international shipping included - Worldwide delivery with tracking - 15-day hassle-free returns ## Description The landmark five-book series—now in a beautifully designed, cloth-bound deluxe hardcover boxed set The Incerto is an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision making when we don’t understand the world, expressed in the form of a personal essay with autobiographical sections, stories, parables, and philosophical, historical, and scientific discussions, in non-overlapping volumes that can be accessed in any order. The main thread is that while there is inordinate uncertainty about what is going on, there is great certainty as to what one should do about it. This deluxe boxed set includes: FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS THE BLACK SWAN THE BED OF PROCRUSTES ANTIFRAGILE SKIN IN THE GAME Review: One of the best series I've read in a long time. - I'm a professional Data Scientist with almost a decade of experience at this point and throughout my whole career I've had a deep sense of unease with expert knowledge, prediction, and the successes and failures of models both machine learning and statistical. I ran across NNT in various places for his radical, but rigorous take downs of many statistical concepts that I had developed independently. I think I came into the profession having high esteem of correlation, then had even less of it excepting in linear domains, and then an NNT video destroyed the rest as he pointed out some basics (the majority of interesting real world data sets aren't linear). From there I devoured many of his white papers, his videos, and great twitter feed. So this year I decided to buy this series and get even further into his work. As I'm finishing up Skin in the Game right now (with the technical companion on the way) I can say that this series is fantastic for the practitioner or layman alike. These books will describe many of the failures of statistics, modeling, prediction, and why they occur in a readable manner for any college (or perhaps well read layman) to digest even if one doesn't understand the mathematics. You'll have less respect for experts (but also less respect for contrarians who disregard the experts) and a more thorough understanding of the many dimensions these failures reverberate through in medicine, philosophy, social sciences, finance, economics, politics and more. I myself will probably have to read it again. As with all great thinkers, I don't know if I agree with 100% of NNT's opinions in this book, but like those great thinkers, his thinking is almost completely unique and even when you disagree with him you have to really think about why you disagree with him. I hope this series and the rest of his works survive the great filter into the future where works of utility to mankind end up. Can't recommend it enough. Review: Acid-free high-quality paper - For those that care, it's acid-free paper that feels good to the hand. Not sure why they don't include this in the description. I wish I wouldn't have to buy a book to make sure it's not printed on toilet paper. ## Technical Specifications | Specification | Value | |---------------|-------| | Best Sellers Rank | #113,304 in Books ( See Top 100 in Books ) #47 in Social Philosophy #62 in Stock Market Investing (Books) | | Customer Reviews | 4.8 out of 5 stars 488 Reviews | ## Images ![Incerto (Deluxe Edition): Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, The Bed of Procrustes, Antifragile, Skin in the Game - Image 1](https://m.media-amazon.com/images/I/71AJzbpwN4L.jpg) ## Available Options This product comes in different **Media Language, Media Format** options. ## Customer Reviews ### ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ One of the best series I've read in a long time. *by C***N on August 26, 2022* I'm a professional Data Scientist with almost a decade of experience at this point and throughout my whole career I've had a deep sense of unease with expert knowledge, prediction, and the successes and failures of models both machine learning and statistical. I ran across NNT in various places for his radical, but rigorous take downs of many statistical concepts that I had developed independently. I think I came into the profession having high esteem of correlation, then had even less of it excepting in linear domains, and then an NNT video destroyed the rest as he pointed out some basics (the majority of interesting real world data sets aren't linear). From there I devoured many of his white papers, his videos, and great twitter feed. So this year I decided to buy this series and get even further into his work. As I'm finishing up Skin in the Game right now (with the technical companion on the way) I can say that this series is fantastic for the practitioner or layman alike. These books will describe many of the failures of statistics, modeling, prediction, and why they occur in a readable manner for any college (or perhaps well read layman) to digest even if one doesn't understand the mathematics. You'll have less respect for experts (but also less respect for contrarians who disregard the experts) and a more thorough understanding of the many dimensions these failures reverberate through in medicine, philosophy, social sciences, finance, economics, politics and more. I myself will probably have to read it again. As with all great thinkers, I don't know if I agree with 100% of NNT's opinions in this book, but like those great thinkers, his thinking is almost completely unique and even when you disagree with him you have to really think about why you disagree with him. I hope this series and the rest of his works survive the great filter into the future where works of utility to mankind end up. Can't recommend it enough. ### ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Acid-free high-quality paper *by G***I on January 29, 2026* For those that care, it's acid-free paper that feels good to the hand. Not sure why they don't include this in the description. I wish I wouldn't have to buy a book to make sure it's not printed on toilet paper. ### ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Beautiful "Incerto" *by M***K on July 31, 2019* This review is heavily focused on the physical product. There are loads of book reviews that go far more in depth for each book than I could begin to while also trying to cover all five. This compendium compiles the main body of work by scholar Nassim Taleb, who has famously (on twitter.com at least...) brought back a revival of the term "Lindy." Each book is a work in and of itself, but they all relate to a common theme. Taleb has referred to the structure of this set being fractal in nature; thus the reader can pick and choose which books to read in any order he likes. It will work as a cohesive whole in any order, and I think this is the meaning behind his choice of calling this an "Incerto." My only gripe with this beautiful box set is actually the box itself. It is FAR too tight and very difficult to pull out an individual book when full. I hope this goes away with use, but the issue is so serious that I damn near took away a "star" from this review. However, the beauty and quality of the books themselves far outweigh the stupid box issue, which could be thrown away anyways. As pictured, the individual volumes feature a unique pattern on the back as well as their number within the set - no spine titles. The color scheme is very regal and definitely makes a beautiful addition to any serious home library. They also feature a book tassel, which is just a QOL feature for some, but huge for me as I can never really keep track of bookmarks unless I use a dollar bill. Overall, I give the hardback Incerto a strong 8 to a light 9 out of ten, but will be giving it five stars on the Amazon scale. If you're looking to get into some interesting, current scholarship and philosophy, put down the Spinoza and give this Incerto a read... ## Frequently Bought Together - Incerto (Deluxe Edition): Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, The Bed of Procrustes, Antifragile, Skin in the Game - Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails: Real World Preasymptotics, Epistemology, and Applications (Revised Edition) (Technical Incerto) - Dynamic Hedging: Managing Vanilla and Exotic Options --- ## Why Shop on Desertcart? - 🛒 **Trusted by 1.3+ Million Shoppers** — Serving international shoppers since 2016 - 🌍 **Shop Globally** — Access 737+ million products across 21 categories - 💰 **No Hidden Fees** — All customs, duties, and taxes included in the price - 🔄 **15-Day Free Returns** — Hassle-free returns (30 days for PRO members) - 🔒 **Secure Payments** — Trusted payment options with buyer protection - ⭐ **TrustPilot Rated 4.5/5** — Based on 8,000+ happy customer reviews **Shop now:** [https://www.desertcart.tn/products/74140700-incerto-deluxe-edition-fooled-by-randomness-the-black-swan-bed](https://www.desertcart.tn/products/74140700-incerto-deluxe-edition-fooled-by-randomness-the-black-swan-bed) --- *Product available on Desertcart Tunisia* *Store origin: TN* *Last updated: 2026-08-31*