Rationality for Mortals: How People Cope with Uncertainty (Evolution and Cognition)

I read this author's _Reckoning with Risk_ some time ago and found it worthwhile. This is an even better book, despite being an earlier one (2000) than that (2003).Like evolution, probability is a slippery, subtle subject and some of its main principles and their ramifications can be hard to grasp, even for intelligent people. This book is one of the best out there for explaining some of the fundamental concepts in uncertainty and probability. Gigerenzer uses some striking historical examples to do this. One of these is about John Arbuthnot (1710) who used the concept that we now call the null hypothesis to prove the existence of God. Gigerenzer observes that "Arbuthnot's test illuminates the possibilities and limitations of a null hypothesis.... Divine providence always wins if the null hypothesis loses."As well as explaining some key concepts such as the null hypothesis, this books shows them in action, as in the Chapter 9 "Understanding Risks in Healthcare."I recommend this book to anyone who wants to improve or check their understanding of some of the fundamental concepts and also gaps in our current understanding of uncertainty and probability.

I have read this text from cover to cover and must say that it is no easy read despite the fact that I studied this subject quite exstensivelyI think part of the problem is that the author is rather too argumentitive, which results in certain areas of the book appearing over complicated.

Toward the end there are a few filler chapters but other than that excellent!

Why is there always a button for requesting a Kindle version of books, but not one for an Audio version of books?I got the authors "Gut Feelings" which I thought was great in audiobook format, and would like to read this in audiobook format too - consider this as a request I could not submit any other way.

Reading this (as far as my increasing sense of annoyance permitted) was not an experience worth sharing. The author is mudling through with remarkably little analytical clarity.

really weird book recommended for my M.Sc in Risk management. Don't bother.

Excellent, difficult to read but well worth it.

I'm a student in engineering and biochemistry in Belgium. I'm far from an expert in the field but the book is well written, easy to understand and as far as I've read delivers. I'm not done yet but for now I have absolutely no regrets.