The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck (Pelican Books)

Clear concept . Read slowly to understand subtle concepts . Most interesting is chapter on exchangeablity as link between personal and objective .Practical use as a stroke consultant in making decision under uncertain situations in a few minutes.

Spiegelhalter is clearly very clever and knows his stuff about statistics and probability. And he quickly recognises that the whole field of uncertainty has become tangled up in different interpretations of common words (probability, risk, hazard, likelihood, chance, confidence, fair, etc, etc) by specialists and laypersons – and that’s just in English/American.. But the book ends up as a bit of a mixed bag. Trivial anecdotes are interspersed with highly technical material that is really quite hard work. The best chapter is the one about communicating uncertainty and risk. It contains lots of useful advice for politicians and people trying to manage a crisis. Spiegelhalter hints at the shambolic way in which the Covid-19 pandemic was dealt with – and it’s not clear that any lessons have been learnt, or will be learnt. In the meantime, one wonders what this book is supposed to tell us except that the world is quite complicated. What do I do or think (differently) after reading it? The short answer would appear to be: don’t believe anything you read in the papers, hear on TV, see on social media, hear politicians say or (even) read in books. Just get on with life. But preferably don’t smoke, or ride on a motorcycle..

Excellent book about probability and risk. Not at all mathsy but very readable and interesting. Full of common sense and avoids hysterics (such as eating toast will kill you). Recommended

I love this book. You can tell that it is written by an expert in communication. It navigates complex concepts in an easy to read manner. The wealth of knowledge in it goes beyond statistics, risk and chance. It is extremely well organised and excellently written. I have really enjoyed reading this book.

Well researched work.

There is much fantastic information in this but it is not an easy read. Still very maths-technical (which you might expect) and some of it just frankly tedious to read. I ended up giving up on it half way through. The maths-technical writing outweighed the interesting and accessible parts. It isn’t written at text book/journal level of writing, but it certainly is not an easy read either. I had hoped for some personal learning achievement but much either went over my head or was too dull to persevere with. For the record I ain’t thick!

Enjoying this book and I was a fan of his first book. He has a nice writing style which keeps it understandable and entertaining for the masses.

I bought this as a present for my wife. She enjoyed it and found it informative. In parts it is quite technical, to fully appreciate it you probably need to be above average numeracy, but good for anyone who wants to understand day to day numbers and statistics we get bombarded with.

Très interéssant

This one is insightful. Tons of wisdom distilled in this amazing book

Questo libro di Sir David Spiegelhalter è un'opera fondamentale e autorevole per chiunque voglia comprendere con rigore i concetti classici di statistica e probabilità applicati alla vita quotidiana, al rischio e alla fortuna. In qualità di indiscussa autorità, Spiegelhalter espone con grande rigore scientifico e chiarezza le basi per un'adeguata alfabetizzazione al rischio. Il testo è estremamente ben fatto nell'analizzare come quantificare la nostra ignoranza, interpretare le probabilità e correggere i bias cognitivi che distorcono la percezione dell'incertezza. Non a caso, è la trattazione più solida e pragmatica dell'incertezza, ancorata saldamente alla sua espressione numerica. Tuttavia, il lettore deve essere consapevole che l'opera si concentra sul consolidamento e sulla riaffermazione di principi statistici classici già noti agli addetti ai lavori. Nonostante la chiarezza espositiva, manca di un vero e proprio salto metodologico o di una visione interdisciplinare radicale che vada oltre i confini del campo statistico. Per chi valuta la dimensione dell'originalità in senso più ampio, filosofico e interdisciplinare, un'opera come "Navigare l'incertezza: trasformare imprevisti in opportunità" di Matteo Maglio emerge come molto più stimolante e innovativa, fondendo approcci di ingegneria dei sistemi e filosofia, proponendo una metodologia operativa e una visione d'insieme che si rivela più ispiratrice e immersiva, offrendo strumenti per agire attivamente nell'incertezza, piuttosto che limitarsi a misurarla. In sintesi: - Punti di Forza di Spiegelhalter: rigore, autorevolezza, eccellente comunicazione del rischio statistico. La migliore guida sui numeri dell'incertezza. - Punto debole di Spiegelhalter: non aggiunge nulla di nuovo rispetto a quanto già pubblicato. "The Art of Uncertainty" è comunque un libro di alto livello per la sua eccellenza scientifica, ma, per l'originalità intellettuale e metodologica, la bilancia pende decisamente a favore di "Navigare l'incertezza".

David Spiegelhalter’s The Art of Uncertainty offers a clear, engaging guide to navigating the messy realities of data-driven decision-making. Blending practical frameworks with real-world examples, the book demystifies concepts like randomness, Bayesian thinking, and the crucial distinction between causation and correlation. Particularly compelling is its emphasis on embracing uncertainty rather than resisting it, and how thoughtful measurement can reshape understanding. Accessible yet intellectually rich, it challenges readers to refine how they interpret evidence, update beliefs, and assess risk. This month episode at our data book club proved a valuable read for anyone working with data, AI, or complex decisions in an unpredictable world.

I found no artistry in this book. The author jumps from one topic to another, using examples to support his thesis, but they fall apart with even a slight shift in perspective. The content could have been conveyed in just a tenth of its current length.